Why scoring first in the Champions League final almost guarantees you the trophy

INTRODUCTION

So we are going towitness the UEFA Champions League Final very soon. PSG VS INTER MILAN will definitely be an interesting battle, both teams are technically very strong and it will be a fantastic tactical battle between two world class mangers: Luis Enrique and Simione Inzaghi.

Now I really wanted to talk about how some of previous years' Champions League finals have been and look at some trends.

PREVIOUS 6 FINALS HAVE BEEN LOW SCORING

Four out of these 6 finals have ended up with a scoreline of 1-0, these were:
1) Manchester City vs Inter Milan: 2022/23

This was a match where Inter probably could have easily scored but ultimately failed to do so missing some good chances, it was a close one in which Rodri's only goal sealed the historic treble for City's boys.

2)Real Madrid vs Liverpool : 2021/22

This was the match where Thibaut Courtois put on a stellar performance, it was as if nothing could go past him, he made a total of 9 saves that match. Real Madrid defended their hearts out the entire match, all theyt needed was one counter attack where Vinicius Jr scored from an incredible cross on the back post.

3) Manchester City vs Chelsea : 2020/21

Pep guardiola made a few severe tactical errors in this match, Thomas Tuchel who came mid-way through the season just outclassed Pep.

Andreas Christensen had a great game, although it was not the best finals in terms of being entertaining to fans.

4)Bayern Munich vs PSG : 2019/2020

Bayern Munich defeated PSG 1-0, PSG had their chances and looked good in certain parts of the game but they kind of lost confidence in the later stages of the game.

The footballing world witnessed FOUR BACK TO BACK 1-0 Champions League finals

The other two finals in this 6 year period ended in 2-0, these were:

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur - 2018/19 : Well, this final is widely considered as the 'most boring Champions League final ever'. The midfield of both teams kind of looked off, Harry Kane did not have a great game(he was returning from injury), not the best watch overall.

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund - 2023/24 : Dortmund dominated Real Madrid in the first half, they even had a few opportunities but ultimately in classic Real Madrid fashion they sealed their 15th champions league final.

Also, obviously in last six finals, the winners have kept a clean sheet.

But I want to you to have a look at some of the shots on goal and Expected goals stats of these matches,I was also wondering how entertainingt hese matches were-

In the Dortmund and Real madrid match, we witnessed 26 shots, 13 from both teams and 10 shots on target, 6 by Madrid and 4 by Dortmund, who also created 3 big chances and Madrid created 1.

The Xg of Dortmund was 2.08 and that of Madrid was 1.13, so it was not a bad watch by any means, I know stats do not tell the entire story but even by eye test it was not bad, if Dortmund had converted their chances they might have given Madrid a tougher fight.

The Inter Milan vs Man City final was also only a close mismatch in terms of stats: Inter had a higher Xg of 1.68 but city had of 0.99, thats not a huge difference, Inter had 6 shots on target while City had 4, the build up to the match was such that City will completely destroy Inter which didn't happen, Inter had chances but they could not bury, it was a good match, probably not the best watch ever though, it did become quite exciting at teh end when Inter created quite a few chances.

Yes Lukaku could have scored we can say that but things started happening after he came on , I am not defending him he could have done better but he was not the onky reason why Inter lost.

According to most fans Liverpool vs Spurs was a boring watch, honestly it was an underwhelming display, there was just one big chance the entire match, that was from Liverpool.

PSG vs Bayern Munich was a better watch, especially to the eye, Psg created 2 big chances whilst Bayern created 3.

Even though the Real Madrid vs Liverpool match was dominated by the latter, and it was quite defensive, it was still a decent watch, we witnessed probably Courtois' greatest performance.

I would not say the same about the Chelsea vs Man City final, in my personal opinion there wasn't much happening to be fair.

Since all these teams kept a clean sheet, they obviously scored first, what about some other finals.

Out of the eight finals preceding the six mentioned above, in six of them the winner scored of the final scored first.

These 6 finals are-

Real Madrid vs Liverpool : 3-1

Real Madrid vs Juventus : 4-1

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid : 1-1(Real Madrid won 5-3 on penalties)

Juventus vs Barcelona: 1-3

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund : 2-1

FC Barcelona vs Man United : 3-1

Its pretty clear that scoring first in Champions League final is an advantage in itself. Before we discuss on why that happens, I actually wanted to talk about the above scorelines, if you look at them they are very high scoring unlike the recent UCL finals, I honestly don't know the reason.

NOW COMING TO WHY SCORING FIRST IS SO IMPORTANT

Now I think the first reason is the pressure it puts on the team that concedes first, since its a final, you don't get a second chance, thus, I believe when a team concedes the goal it would put them under massive pressure.

Another reason I think is that in recent years teams in finals have started to play very pragmatically, so there is very little chance you score when you have conceded since the opposing team will just sit back and defend

Finally I personally think the PSG VS INTER MILAN final will be  a great match atleast in terms of quality.

THANK YOU FOR READING!!!